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In this Discussion
- Cheers November 2017
- HiddenCreek November 2017
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???? Confusion with comparison testing
-
So I’ve used benchmark studs to make assumptions, but now I am questioning my past decisions.
I have these three studs I was testing:
Ice HC Frozen Dream B4Gue
He is the sire to this stud:
Ice HC Dreams of Ice B2g
Testing Dad (Frozen Dreams)and son (dreams of Ice) reveled that they are about as good as each other. Ok.
Tested Dad (Frozen Dreams) against outside stud below: Frozen Dreams was inferior to Broken Ice (below). Aka Dad wasn't as good as this stud:
HC Broken Ice 8 Kitm
Now, my assumption was, Dreams of Ice (the son of Frozen Dreams) would test the same as his dad, inferior to Broken Ice. Because Dad and son are as good as each other. Normally I would not even comparison test and make that assumption, but I figured why not.
HOWEVER, Dreams of Ice (the son) tested as good as Broken Ice (outside stud).
Help?! So I’ve been making assumptions all wrong then?
Hidden Creek Farms # 31285
Home of the Aydindril Horses -
So
Everything in this game that isn’t directly quantified (PT, AFPT) spans a range of values. Papering spans a range of values. So does consistency (horses are considered consistent with a 2 Point show score swing, while a perfectly consistent horse has no swing. A horse with a 3 point variation is considered inconsistent.)
Comparison testing is the same. A horse that tests “AGA” tests within a narrow range of the horse it’s compared to. Remember that the exact wording is actually “About As Good As”. This is why you can have B papered colts who compare AGA A papered colts. You know the A is a little better, but you know that B is a really high B and the A is a really low A.
So, your three boys, from lowest Breeding Ability to highest, go
Frozen Dreams
Dreams of Ice
Broken Ice
You also know for sure now that Dreams of Ice is slightly better than his dad, probably only a percentage point or two. And Broken Ice is only a percentage point or two better than that. -
Right, I always wondered about the “about as good as”. That makes sense but totally blew my mind at first! I have quite a few horses I need to go back and comparison test Bc I made assumptions based on AGA Horses! :p
Thanks CheersHidden Creek Farms # 31285
Home of the Aydindril Horses